However, the Bolshevik takeover in 1917 put an end to gradual liberalisation. Turkey and Russia belong, of course, to different religious realms: the one is overwhelmingly Muslim, the other largely Orthodox. Putin and Erdoğan have managed to keep conflicts under a lid and maximise overlapping interests. Presidents Putin and Erdoğan inspect a Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet, August 2019. These differences bring into question the argument that Turkey and Russia constitute an autocratic bloc. Putin and Erdoğan have turned into a diplomatic double act, with the recent agreement for a ceasefire in Idlib being the latest example. mentary elections and even capture a majority of seats in the Grand National Assembly. Russian Federation, Strategic partnerships, Kavala was promptly taken back into custody, this time on charges of espionage and links to the failed coup in 2016. On 17 February 2020, a court in Istanbul acquitted prominent philanthropist Osman Kavala, who was accused of attempting to overthrow the Turkish government by organising the 2013 Gezi protests. It was the Soviet threat that gave birth to the U.S.-Turkey alliance. Rather than an outpost of NATO or an eternal EU membership candidate, Turkey sees itself as an autonomous power whose writ runs from Libya to Syria and from Sudan to the Gulf. Russia and Turkey alternate between geoeconomic partnership with military-industrial cooperation, and jostling, even proxy warring, to see which has dominance from North Africa to the Caspian Sea. For both of them, rallying the public behind the flag, with help from loyalist media, became the strategy of choice. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Turkey condemned this mildly as the geopolitical landscape had changed in the previous decade and its rivalry with Russia over energy resources had come to an end. Such support should not be only at the discourse level, but must be augmented by concrete measures to support pro-democracy forces in Turkey. These two stories lay bare the unnerving similarities between Turkey and Russia. Recently, for instance, Moscow sought US mediation in its oil price dispute with Saudi Arabia. Vote rigging or removal of elected officials, e.g. Turkey is relatively new to electoral fraud. The US has issued sanctions against its fellow Nato ally Turkey over its deployment of a Russian-made missile defence system acquired last year. "Relations between Russia and Turkey are self-sustainable and self-sufficient; they don’t depend on someone’s aggressive and hostile actions and whims," Lavrov said on Tuesday. Ankara is aware of this and is acting accordingly. What Erdoğan does – similar to his role model Sultan Abdulhamid II – is play Russia against the West, and vice versa, in pursuit of maximum strategic autonomy. Turkey draws road map with Egypt, but will Cairo follow it? Erdoğan controls state resources, major parts of the media, and, most importantly, the Supreme Election Council. The rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) proved to be a game changer. Read more about: Turkey, Journalists. While the West was struggling to respond to the crisis, Turkey seemed to distance itself form its allies when it asserted the primacy of the Montreux Convention. Nevertheless, the EU must take a long-term view and recognise that the next few years are critical for Turkey’s ailing democracy. mayors from the pro-Kurdish HDP, is part of the toolbox. Since Turkey’s controversial acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia, the narrative that the EU is facing a twin challenge from the East has been gaining currency in European capitals. State and society of a country / a region, Nato. On the contrary, factors such as a highly educated population, a large middle class, as well as the rising intolerance to corruption and state capture may favour democratic development over the long term. free” to “not free”. Turkey considers the Kurdish militia YPG, the leading element in the SDF, to be part of the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2020. Although Russia will remain authoritarian for some time to come, Turkey is approaching a historic crossroad: Either authoritarianism will be consolidated or some sort of return to parliamentary democracy will prevail. Expectations that he might cede power, step by step, to a successor have evaporated. In Russia, Putin has amended the constitution so as to be eligible to rule for another two six-year terms after 2024. What also matters is the electoral culture. It has a relatively more competitive political system shaped by decades of democratic development. NAT 9th January 2021. oligarchs, the siloviki (security elite), and civilian technocrats. Russia was demoted back in 2004, at the end of Putin’s first term. In 1993, President Boris Yeltsin used the armed forces to storm and dissolve the opposition-run legislature. How Turkey and Russia have gained from conflict For … Checks on the executive branch, from the media all the way to parliament, have been dismantled. With a twist of irony, it is now Russia that may break this alliance. Suat Kınıklıoğlu, SWP Comment 2020/C 24, Ties with influential global players such as Russia and China are, according to Erdoğan and his circle, essential to the national interest. … Hence, it is critical to understand the gravity of the current time frame and take a pro-active stance in favour of Turkish democracy. The report said Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan were all violating a U.N. arms embargo on Libya by ferrying military equipment and supplies to … In the 2000s, Putin changed the rules, becoming an indispensable arbiter for clans in government: e.g. The US says Russia's S … Unlike post-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, elections and democratic institutions turned into a façade, though civil society and, to a lesser degree, media freedoms were not curtailed. The strength of the opposition, the structure of the economy, and the nature of linkages to the West make it unlikely that Turkey will consolidate an authoritarian system resembling Russia’s. Many observers likened the so-called Network (Set’) case to Stalin’s show trials. A Turkish Foreign Ministry official claims, “Ain Issa has become a foothold of infiltration, harassment, and terrorist attacks for PKK/YPG. EU foreign policy, (2) According to Rostourism (Russian Federal Agency for Tourism). At a time when Russia and Turkey are engaged in a wide range of economic and military projects—the South Stream pipeline, joint development of the S … NAT 9th January 2021. Turkey and Russia have already agreed to set up a joint centre in the region to monitor the Nov. 10 ceasefire, which ended weeks of fighting between Azerbaijan’s troops and … However, Russia as well as Turkey have proven flexible in their day-to-day conducting of foreign policy. Since the end of the Cold War, however, the two countries have established an important economic relationship, and they have set a bold, perhaps unreachable target of $100 billion in bilateral trade. AKP-friendly businesses gradually took ownership of major media. Yet, Turkey is, and will remain, different from Russia. The Blue Stream pipeline, a section of which crosses the Black Sea, has supplied Russian gas to Turkey since 2003; and this January the smaller TurkStream began to supply southern and southeastern Europe via the Turkish port of Kıyıköy. Days before, on 11 February, magistrates in the Russian town of Penza sentenced seven young left-wing activists to 6 to 18 years in prison. That said, all the way until the mid-2000s, the military limited elected politicians’ authority by intervening in decision-making and staging periodic coups. World An Assertive Turkey Muscles Into Russia’s Backyard Erdogan extended support for Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, a rare foray into Kremlin’s sphere of influence European decision-makers must look beyond the nativist populism of Erdoğan and recognise that a considerable part of the country no longer supports an executive presidency, but rather prefers a return to parliamentary democracy. (4) See Fiona Hill and Omer Taspinar, ‘Turkey and Russia: Axis of the excluded?’, Survival, vol 48, no 1, London, 2006. Although Russia and Turkey are rivals in several conflicts, including Libya and Syria, Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan seek to maintain good relations. Turkey and Russia are often portrayed as two authoritarian regimes led by strong leaders who favour an omnipotent state at the expense of fundamental freedoms and liberal democratic institutions. That has started to happen only recently in Russia. Through economic and military aid, President Harry Truman tried to prevent Turkey and Greece from falling under Soviet influence in 1947. Turkey, Russia maintain delicate balance in three hotspots. It opened up its political system, abolishing one-party rule after the Second World War. Russia adopted a new constitution that enhanced the role of the executive. Russia has almost no democratic record. Political pluralism resurfaced only during perestroika of the 80s and in the early 90s with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the birth of the Russian Federation opening new opportunities. Defying expectation… The 2010 referendum diluted the judiciary’s autonomy.